Net migration is expected to significantly contribute to the UK’s population reaching 72.5 million by 2032, according to projections. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) forecasts a population increase of 7.3% from 2022 to 2032, compared to a 6.1% rise in the previous decade.
The majority of this growth is driven by net migration—the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the UK—estimated at 4.9 million over the next 10 years.
Downing Street has expressed its desire to reduce what it calls the “staggeringly high” migration levels but has ruled out setting an “arbitrary” cap.
The ONS predicts that births and deaths will roughly balance out, with the population seeing an additional 1.7 million pensioners by 2032. Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the projections include:
- 6.8 million births
- 6.8 million deaths
- 9.9 million immigrants to the UK
- 4.9 million people leaving the UK
The government has stated it will outline a “comprehensive plan” to address high migration levels. However, the prime minister’s spokesperson pointed out that Sir Keir Starmer believes imposing an arbitrary cap, as previous administrations have done, is not the best approach to reducing migration.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp expressed concerns about the projected influx, calling the 10 million arrivals over 10 years “shocking and unacceptable.” He advocated for a legal cap on visas issued each year to significantly lower the numbers and regain control.
The ONS’s net migration projections have been revised upwards compared to the previous year. It was initially expected that, from 2028, net migration would add 315,000 people annually to the UK; this has now been revised to 340,000.
England is expected to experience the highest population growth among the UK’s nations, with a projected rise of 7.8%. In comparison, Wales is expected to grow by 5.9%, Scotland by 4.4%, and Northern Ireland by 2.1%.
The ONS also predicts that the natural change in population—births minus deaths—will be “around zero,” as the number of deaths is expected to increase due to a larger elderly population, largely from those born after World War II. Lower fertility rates may also contribute to fewer children being born.
By 2029, the number of deaths is expected to surpass the number of births, making net migration the sole driver of population growth. Without immigration or a significant rise in births, the UK’s population would shrink.
These population projections are vital for planning in areas such as fiscal policy, education, health, and pensions. If used by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the updated projections could help improve the UK’s economic outlook and reduce borrowing by approximately £5 billion, according to the Resolution Foundation.
The ONS emphasized that these figures are projections, not definitive predictions, and cautioned that actual numbers may differ.
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